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Friends of the Earth's report
"Gathering Storm"
Extreme weather events during the last few
months
Global indicators of climate change
download extreme weather
briefing (RTF) | (PDF)
THE HEAT IS ON
1998 was the hottest year of the millennium [2].
The 6 hottest years on record have occurred during the 1990s [2].
Temperatures have risen about 0.6 degrees centigrade since 1860
when records began [5]
CLIMATE CHANGE AND WEATHER EXTREMES
"It is no longer a question of whether the earth's climate
will change but when, where and by how much." John Robert T.
Watson, Chairman of the United Nations Inter-Governmental Panel
on Climate Change, 1999 [1].
During the closing decades of the 20th century record breaking
temperatures and a run of extreme weather events rang the alarm
bells. The trend is continuing into the 21st century and this briefing
catalogues some of the extreme weather events that have occurred
during the last few months, along with signs in the environment
that our climate is really changing. Man-made emissions of greenhouse
gases are agreed to be the key contributing factor to climate change.
The most important of these gases is carbon dioxide which is released
when fossil fuels - coal, oil, gas - are burnt.
The 1990s were not only the warmest decade of the 20th century but
also of the millennium [2]. In addition to this
trend of higher temperatures we can also expect increases in the
following:
- intense precipitation
- long dry spells
- frequency of hurricanes
- extremely high temperature events [3]
Furthermore, there is the possibility of unpleasant surprises, as
the response of the climate system to radiative forcings could be
non-linear, with quite irregular changes such as fluctuations in
the behaviour of El Niņo, one of the main drivers of climate variability,
and stagnation of the Ocean Conveyor Belt.
The economic costs of climate change are now recognised. In November
1998, the Worldwatch Institute and Munich Re - the world's largest
reinsurer - issued a report which assessed the total losses, worldwide,
from storms, floods, droughts, and fires for the first eleven months
of that unusual year. The staggering sum, at that time, was a record
$89 billion: nearly 50 percent higher than the previous record of
$60 billion in 1996. In addition to material losses, these weather-related
events had taken an estimated 32,000 lives, while displacing 300
million people from their homes: more than the populations of Canada
and the United States combined. [4] The insurance
industry is certainly worried about the soaring costs of severe
weather damage and is already refusing cover for various weather
events in certain regions.
Obviously, there are many uncertainties associated with climate
modelling, and so far, not one single extreme whether event can
be directly attributed to climate change. But in light of the evidence
that climate change is happening already, and the knowledge that
weather extremes pose real risks to human life and economic well-being,
predictions should not be taken lightly. The extreme weather events
which have characterised recent trends have all too often been a
source of misery to many. Major cuts in greenhouse gas emissions
are needed urgently to slow down climate change and eventually stabilise
concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Extreme weather events during the last few
months
Global indicators of climate change
WHAT ABOUT EL NIÑO?
Studies have indicated that an increase in global temperature
may lead to an increase in both the frequency and the intensity
of future El Niņos. Robert May, UK Government Chief Scientific Advisor
said that "if global warming continues, perturbation to weather
systems like this [El Niņo] are likely to become more common" (DTI,
30th September 1997).
The El Niņo Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring
phenomenon. Weakening easterly trade winds result in higher sea
temperatures in the tropical pacific, and cause major changes in
global weather patterns. El Niņos are set in motion at irregular
intervals, altering the course of weather and climate, around the
world, for up to a year or so. The most recent were in 1982-83,
1986-87, 1990-95, and 1997-98. The record-breaking and long-lasting
El Niņo of 1997-98 began in April of the first year and persisted
until May of the next. During this period, extreme weather events
were reported from around the world.
The 1997-98 El Niņo almost certainly contributed in establishing
1998 as the world's warmest year on record. The most severe drought
of the 1997-1998 El Niņo struck Indonesia, with the result that
many of the fires commonly set to clear land for agriculture raged
out of control for weeks on end. So much ash was carried into the
air that respiratory problems were reported as far as 1000 km (about
600 miles) away, and the loss of visibility was held responsible
for the crash of a commercial airliner. El Niņo-related drought
and associated wildfires continued into 1998 in Brazil, Mexico,
and Florida. As expected with El Niņo, flooding hit Peru and Ecuador
but also Chile, and coastal fisheries were disrupted. [4]
Predictions about future El Niņos are hard to make, but the probability
that they will be of increased intensity and frequency due to higher
global temperatures might spell out more misery for many of the
world's nations.
CONCLUSIONS
The extreme weather events catalogued here
could become more common if we fail to take action to cut emissions
of greenhouse gases now.
Recent years have seen a number of 'floods of the century' and
the hottest year on record. In the short-term it is difficult to
distinguish between natural variability and climate change, so it
is not possible to definitely link a specific weather event (or
sequence of events) to climate change. However, there are indications
that the human footprint on the climate system is becoming increasingly
visible. The IPCC said in 1996 that recent changes in climate are
"unlikely to be entirely natural in origin" [3].
The next IPCC assessment report (third assessment report, TAR),
due out in spring 2001 is expected to produce more evidence.
It is clear however, that climate change threatens more frequent
and extreme weather events such as those experienced recently and
catalogued in this briefing. Droughts, floods, cyclones and storm
surges, with knock-on effects for ecosystems, fires, pests outbreaks,
human health, our settlements and food security, might increase
in frequency and intensity. For millions, this could mean homelessness,
missing relatives, crop failure, famine, disease or death. It is
the poor countries which are likely to suffer most. The industrialised
countries, having polluted the atmosphere with greenhouse gases
over the last century, will also be hit. But they will be much more
able to react to extreme weather events and to protect their people.
Avoiding such an outcome will require deep cuts in emissions of
greenhouse gases now.
In November 2000 the World's governments will meet in The Hague,
The Netherlands to finalise the Kyoto Protocol,
the key environmental treaty to tackle climate change. Decisions
taken at this summit (known as COP6, the sixth Conference of Parties
to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) will
determine the environmental effectiveness of the Protocol. From
the evidence submitted here, it is imperative that governments agree
on measures that result in real and permanent reductions in greenhouse
gas emissions.
Contact:
Roda Verheyen
Friends of the Earth England, Wales and Northern Ireland
References
[1] John Robert T Watson, Chairman
of the United Nations Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change,
1999.
[2] Climatic Research Unit, Norwich: Global Temperature Record,
2000
[3] Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (1996) Climate Change
1995: The Science of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
[4] K. Trenberth, Consequences, vol 5, No5, 1999.
[5] The Meteorological Office . The greenhouse effect and climate
change. A briefing from the Hadley Centre. Bracknell. Oct. 1999.
[6] The Heat is Online: Ross Gelbspan http://www.heatisonline.org/main.cfm
[7] Planet Ark; the environment news from Reuters news agency. http://www.planetark.org
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