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Brussels, 1 June 2005: Friends of the Earth and Transport & Environment presenting a ground breaking research on the climate impact of aviation to Commissioner Dimas.
(photo credit: FoE. Click on the photos to get high resolution) |
Growth in flights will wreck Climate change targets, new research shows
New research published today (Wednesday 1 June 2005) by
Friends of the Earth England, Wales and Northern Ireland, and
carried out by the UK Tyndall Centre for Climate Change
Research, shows that unless the EU and the UK Government takes
action to reduce the growth in aviation emissions the
industry's emissions will wipe out all the savings that other
sectors of the economy could make.
The research also shows that carbon reduction targets will be
almost impossible to meet if aviation emissions continue to
grow at the rates analysed by the Tyndall Centre [1].
Tyndall, the UK's leading independent climate change research
body, concludes that if aviation growth continues, it could
take up the entire emissions budget for all sectors of the EU
economy by 2040 and all sectors of the UK economy by 2037, if
we are to keep within safe limits [2]. This would mean that
schools, hospitals, commerce, houses and industry would not be
able to release any emissions if the UK and the EU are to stay
within environmental limits. Friends of the Earth described
such a scenario as "absurd, unjust and unachievable".
The research looked at growth trends in the aviation industry
and calculated that emissions from the sector would rise
rapidly between now and 2050, assuming these trends continued.
It also took account of the way in which air transport markets
mature and assumed that significant improvements in fuel
efficiencies would be achieved.
The report concludes that there will be: "severe consequences
for both the UK and the EU in terms of meeting their
obligations to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. if European
governments continue to permit, or indeed promote,
historically high levels of aviation growth."
Friends of the Earth believes that if the EU allows the
aviation sector to grow according to its forecasts, it will
find it politically impossible to achieve the overall cut in
CO2 emissions needed. Friends of the Earth is calling for the
EU to introduce the economic measures and sector targets to
achieve stabilisation of CO2 at 450ppm by 2050.
Friends of the Earth's Aviation Campaigner Richard Dyer said:
"The biggest question this generation faces is how we tackle
climate change. The EU must introduce the economic measures
necessary to curb aviation emissions. This report paints a
devastating picture of the future impact of uncontrolled
aviation growth for the environment. Decision makers must face
up to the fact that tackling climate change means tackling the
demand for aviation."
Climate change is the most pressing environmental issue facing
humanity. The UK Prime Minister Tony Blair recently described
it as "a challenge so far reaching in its impact and
irreversible in its destructive power, that it alters
radically human existence" [3].
Aviation is a rapidly growing industry and the fastest growing
source of climate changing emissions. The European Commission
is currently investigating the merits of bringing intra-EU
aviation into the existing EU emissions trading scheme (ETS)
its key policy to reduce climate emissions from the sector.
This is one option that the EU is considering, but it is also
discussing taxes and emissions charges. The Commission is due
to communicate its views on the policy options in the summer
of 2005. Friends of the Earth believes that member states
should remove remaining VAT and kerosene tax exemptions on
domestic flights and by pressing for effective EU measures
starting with an emissions charge.
Contact
Richard Dyer, Friends of the Earth England, Wales and Northern
Ireland
Phone: +44-7940 850328 (mobile)
Jan Kowalzig, Friends of the Earth Europe
Phone: +32-2-5426102 or +32-473-510147 (mobile)
Kevin Anderson, Tyndall Centre
Phone: +44-797 314376 (mobile)
Notes
A summary of the Tyndall report is available at:
http://www.foe.co.uk/resource/reports/aviation_tyndall_summary.pdf
The full report is available at:
http://www.foe.co.uk/resource/reports/aviation_tyndall_research.pdf
[1] Emissions from international aviation are not included in
the current regime to cut greenhouse gas emissions, as there
is no international agreement on allocating their
responsibility to nation states. Tyndall have assumed that
states would accept responsibility for 50% of all
international arrivals and departures, an assumption also used
e.g. by the UK Department for Transport in its technical paper
'Aviation and Global Warming - Jan 2004' see
http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_aviation/documents/page/dft_aviation_031850.pdf
[2] This calculation assumes that the EU adopted a 450ppmv
2050 carbon concentration target. The report found this to be
a safer target that would be compatible with the 1996 European
Council target to limit temperature rise from climate change
to 20 C.
The research concludes that if aviation growth continues, it
could take up the entire emissions budget for all sectors of
the EU economy by 2040 based on an atmospheric stabilisation
target of greenhouse gas concentrations of 450 parts per
million. Moreover, between 2010 and 2020, EU aviation
emissions could already be equivalent to their respective
economy-wide 2050 targets. This means that from 2020 onwards
no sector would be able to grow its emissions (unless
compensated outside of the EU system).
Tyndall looked at current growth trends for aviation and then
compared this emissions growth with the declining profiles of
total emissions under a contraction and convergence climate
policy. They also looked at the implications of this growth
for other sectors of the economy and for the EU emissions
trading system (ETS). Contraction and convergence (C&C) is a
policy increasingly recommended for avoiding the worst impacts
of climate change it would require industrialised nations to
make substantial cuts in their emissions, while permitting
some industrialising countries to increase theirs within the
equal level per capita objective. Friends of the Earth
believes that Contraction and Convergence under-estimates the
cuts needed in developed countries because it fails to take
into account responsibilities for historic emissions and it
also underestimates the development needs of poor nations.
[3] Tony Blair speech on climate change 14/9/2004
[4] See Tyndall report summary for full details of Friends of
the Earth's policy demands at:
http://www.foe.co.uk/resource/reports/aviation_tyndall_summary.pdf
Friends of the Earth
Europe campaigns for sustainable and fair societies and for the
protection of the environment,
unites more than 30 national organisations with thousands of local
groups
and is part of the world's largest grassroots environmental network,
Friends of the Earth International.
