040 | ENERGY
       
    energy    
         
The current supply of energy is mainly based on fossil fuels. Furthermore, nuclear energy is used for electricity generation. The adverse consequences of using fossil fuels and nuclear energy have been long recognized and should be tackled as soon as possible. If industrialized countries want to maintain their present standards of living and quality of life, they have to begin changing the global energy system now.   graph: co2 emissions
       
    limiting the risk of climate change    
         
The threat of climate destabilisation caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is the main energy-related problem at present. This provides the basis for quantifying environmental space for energy. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts in its "business as usual" scenario that, according to present trends and current knowledge, world temperature may increase by 0.8-2.6°C by 2050 and by 1.4-5.8°C by 2100. This will lead to significant changes in regional climates. More recent research by the IPCC has confirmed these predictions. The limits considered necessary by the IPCC are:    
limit the maximum temperature increase to 2°C    
limit the rate of temperature increase to 0.1 °C/decade    
limit global C02 emissions to 2 giga-tonnes per year before 2100    
     
The calculation of environmental space for energy use is based on the following assumptions:    
environmental space is limited by the C02 reduction goal promoted by the IPCC. A significant reduction of fossil energy consumption is necessary to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. It will also reduce emissions of other pollutants such as S02 and NOx and will conserve available resources of fossil fuels;    
nuclear energy has to be phased out as soon as possible due to the unacceptable risks involved and the major problems involved in management and disposal of nuclear wastes. The year 2010 is taken as a feasible deadline.    
       
    a reduction is needed    
         
In 1990 global average emissions of C02 were about 4 tonnes per capita each year. To limit the temperature increase to 0.1°C per decade, an annual global decrease in emissions of 1-2 per cent is required. To achieve the IPCC objectives implies a ceiling of 2 tonnes of C02 per capita per year at current population levels. Taking global population growth into account, we should aim to reduce our emissions to 1.7 tonnes of C02 by 2010, and to no more than 1.1 tonnes per capita by 2050.

In 1990 average annual per capita European emissions were 7.3 tonnes of C02 (excluding the Newly Independent States (NIS)) and in many states emissions have grown since. It may not be practicable to reach annual per capita levels of 1.7 tonnes of C02 by 2010, but we must seek rapid progress towards this target. For practical intermediate targets the Sustainable Europe study adopted the recommendations of the International Project for Sustainable Energy Paths (IPSEP) for a reduction of C02 emissions for industrialized countries from 1987 levels of 20 to 30 per cent by 2005 and 50 per cent by 2020. 		   
     

There are only a few European energy scenarios based on the need to reduce C02 emissions that also take account of the need for a nuclear phase out. One such is the Fossil Free Energy Scenario (FFES) developed by the Stockholm Environmental Institute for Greenpeace (1993). In this scenario, nuclear energy is phased out by 2010 and the proportion of energy from renewable sources, including energy from waste and biomass is increased rapidly. This study suggests annual per capita C02 emissions levels of 5.4 tonnes by 2010 are practical.


Other studies predict greater potential for efficiency improvements, and therefore lower primary energy use, leading to a lower requirement for renewable energy to meet the same C02 targets. For example, the IPSEP [IN FULL] study estimates the energy saving potential of five European countries to be approximately 40 per cent. We have adopted these assumptions about efficiency, but for the optimum use of renewable energy sources our assumptions are less optimistic than those of the FFES as the opportunities for energy from waste and biomass are limited by other resource constraints. Thus for Europe in 2010, we estimate that permitted annual energy use can be 98 GJ per capita, of which 78 GJ per capita is fossil fuel based.

The use of renewable energy systems implies an increase in land use. For solar and wind electricity generation the additional requirements are less than those for biomass. Although the land requirements connected with the use of coal, oil or natural gas will decline, a net increase in land use can be anticipated and must be taken into account.

   
       
    put energy levels within the environmental space    
         
The C02 reduction goals can be reached through:    
increasing the efficiency of energy use and production;    
increasing utilisation of renewable energy sources;    
fuel switching to increase the share of fuels with lower relative C02 emissions;    
limiting the growth in (or actively decreasing) demand for energy services;    
reducing transport usage and increasing efficiency of vehicles.    
       
The ultimate aim is to achieve an energy efficient and risk minimizing energy system. The core elements of such a system could include the concept of 'energy services', supported by decentralised co-generation systems and renewable energy technologies. In order to establish a more efficient energy system many barriers have to be overcome, involving actors in different sectors in society, ranging from households to industry. Therefore, it will be of crucial importance to develop and implement information programs and establish economic incentives for energy efficiency and technological innovation.    

 

     

    sector specific measures and strategies    
         
    Energy | more about energy    
    Non-renewable resources | more about raw materials    
    More about land use    
    Wood | more about wood    
    Water | more about water    

 

     

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    Energy Briefing by Friends of the Earth England, Wales and Northern Ireland    
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